Bitcoin Mining Computing Power May Drop as Much as 30% After Halving: Experts

Machine efficiency and low cost of power are key to surviving the bitcoin halving, industry figures tell CoinDesk.

AccessTimeIconJul 26, 2023 at 7:55 p.m. UTC

Computing power on the Bitcoin network, known as hashrate, could drop by as much as 30% as unprofitable miners shut off their rigs after the next halving event, expected in April 2024, experts said in a Twitter Spaces on Wednesday hosted by CoinDesk as part of its Mining Week 2023.

Lucas Pipes, Managing Director at investment bank B. Riley Financial, estimated a 15% to 30% decline in Bitcoin's hashrate. Colin Harper, head of content at mining services firm Luxor Mining, said a 20% drop was possible.

This story is part of CoinDesk's 2023 Mining Week, sponsored by Foundry.

Roughly every four years, the bitcoin rewards the miners receive for successfully mining a block are cut in half in a way of controlling the blockchain's supply economics. This event is known as the halving. The next halving will lower the reward to 3.125 BTC per block from the current 6.25 BTC.

As the rewards get cut in half, the cost to mine a block successfully doubles. Barring major upward swings in bitcoin's price, this would lead to miners that are not profitable to shut off their machines and, in turn, lower hashrates for the network.

To this end, the miners have been trying to upgrade their fleets to newer generation machines, which require less power to mine a block successfully. Power costs are usually miners' biggest operational expenditure, so minimizing this costs is the key to surviving the halving.

The hashrate has been increasing in the past year as more machines are coming online. Meanwhile, the efficiency of machines has roughly doubled every five years.

Edited by Ben Schiller.


Please note that our privacy policy, terms of use, cookies, and do not sell my personal information has been updated.

The leader in news and information on cryptocurrency, digital assets and the future of money, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups. As part of their compensation, certain CoinDesk employees, including editorial employees, may receive exposure to DCG equity in the form of stock appreciation rights, which vest over a multi-year period. CoinDesk journalists are not allowed to purchase stock outright in DCG.

Eliza Gkritsi

Eliza Gkritsi is CoinDesk's AI/crypto reporter.

Learn more about Consensus 2024, CoinDesk’s longest-running and most influential event that brings together all sides of crypto, blockchain and Web3. Head to to register and buy your pass now.